The strengthening El Niño and what it could mean for Ghana

Depending on how El Niño interacts with Atlantic Ocean conditions and the West African Monsoon, some parts of the country could experience suppressed rainfall, changes in the timing of rains, longer dry spells or an earlier cessation of seasonal rainfall.

Analysis of Accra’s over a century-long rainfall record shows that ENSO influences the major rainy season, with historically lower May–June rainfall during El Niño than La Niña, while Gulf of Guinea and tropical Atlantic temperatures play a stronger role in the short dry and minor rainy season 3.

Global El Niño forecasts provide the large-scale picture, but Ghana-specific forecasts are necessary to determine how those global conditions are likely to translate into weather and climate at the national and sub-national levels.