Global oil demand set for first annual decline since 2020, IEA says 

“While the global oil market balance looks set to swing back to surplus towards the end of the year, the forecast hinges on the assumption that tanker flows through the Strait will gradually recover, allowing producers to restart fields and refiners in the Middle East and elsewhere to resume product shipments,” the agency noted.

While current forecasts indicate a gradual shift toward a surplus, the long-term stability of the global energy market rests upon the fragile hope for a de-escalation that has, thus far, remained elusive.

The International Energy Agency projects a significant downturn in global oil demand for 2026.