
Why South Africa’s economy feels worse than the numbers suggest
South Africa’s long-term prosperity will depend on two complementary developments: The first is stronger investment-led growth that lifts the economy closer to its productive potential; and The second is the continued moderation of population growth through the country’s ongoing demographic transition, allowing the gains from that growth to be shared among a more slowly expanding population.
This is not about blaming population growth for South Africa’s economic difficulties.
Holding employment creation constant, it estimates that if South Africa’s population had grown more in line with the average upper-middle-income country, today’s expanded unemployment rate would have been several percentage points lower.
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