Why Democrats’ blue wave might not be as big as expected

Signs are accumulating that the blue wave of Democratic support this year may be even higher than in the 2018 election, when a backlash against President Donald Trump’s tumultuous first term carried the party back into control of the House of Representatives.

In 2018, Democratic House and Senate candidates significantly outraised their Republican opponents, according to And while Republican party committees and independent expenditure groups raised more than their Democratic counterparts that year, that advantage was dulled by federal election rules which limited their direct coordination with campaigns and allowed broadcasters to charge those groups more for ads than they charged candidates.

For Democrats, the wave is being powered primarily by turnout and Trump: clear signs that their partisans are more energized than Republicans about voting this year and that voters are now more negative on the president’s performance than not only in 2018, but also in other modern midterms that broke sharply against the party holding the White House, such as 2010 and 2006.