Research firm Fitch Solutions has revealed that despite global cocoa prices soaring to record levels in 2025, top cocoa-producing countries such as Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire are unlikely to reap the full economic benefits.
Data shows that average cocoa prices reached US$8,900 per tonne between January and July 2025, more than triple the long-term average of US$2,500 per tonne recorded from 2005 to 2023.
According to Fitch, while prices are expected to gradually ease to around US$6,900 per tonne between 2026 and 2030 as global supplies recover, they are still projected to remain well above historical levels.
However, Fitch Solutions cautions that these elevated prices are unlikely to translate into major economic windfalls for the region's top cocoa producers. "Our view that structurally higher cocoa prices will not create major economic windfalls for Africa's cocoa-producing nations in the coming years rests on three key factors," Fitch noted.
