The Great ECOWAS Rupture: Modelling the Aftermath of West Africa's Regional Fragmentation  Executive Summary   The withdrawal of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) - comprising Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger - from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) on January 29, 2025, marks a fundamental transformation in West African regional integration.

This development presents significant implications for regional stability, economic integration, and international relations.

Our scenario analysis identifies four potential trajectories for regional development.

First, the AES will likely pursue increased autonomy, focusing on military cooperation, economic integration, and strategic partnerships with external powers.