Domestic food price inflation remains high around the world - World Bank report

The World Bank Report on the response to rising food insecurity has indicated that domestic food price inflation remains high around the world.

Information from the latest month between January 2023 and April 2023 for which food price inflation data are available shows high inflation in most low- and middle-income countries, with inflation higher than 5% in 64.7% of low-income countries, 81.4% of lower-middle-income countries, and 84% of upper-middle-income countries and many experiencing double-digit inflation; 78.6% of high-income countries are experiencing high food price inflation.

The most-affected countries are in Africa, North America, Latin America, South Asia, Europe, and Central Asia.

The agricultural, cereal, and export price indices closed 1%, 4%, and 1% higher, respectively, than two weeks ago.

Maize prices are 15% higher than in January 2021, while wheat and rice prices are at the same level. (See “ data for agricultural commodity and food commodity prices indices, updated monthly.)

The  highlights that, after three consecutive years of La Niña, which brought bumper crops for some countries and crop failures for others, it is likely that the world is heading into an El Niño pattern, with a 62% chance of development during May to July, a 75% chance between June and August, and an 80% chance during the rest of the year.

Globally, the number of people in GRFC countries and territories facing acute food insecurity increased to 257.8 million in 2022 from 192.8 million in 2021 and has more than doubled since 2016, albeit with data coming from a larger group of countries.

The percentage of the analyzed population in IPC/CH Phase 3 or above or equivalent has also increased each year, doubling from 11.3% in 2016 to 22.7% in 2022.

The causes of this increase are complex and interlinked, with conflicts, national and global economic shocks, and weather extremes acting as interrelated, mutually reinforcing drivers of acute food insecurity and hunger.

Of these primary drivers, conflict and insecurity remain the most important, with the GRFC indicating that, by the end of 2022, there were an estimated 53.2 million internally displaced people, mainly displaced by conflict, in 25 food-crisis countries.

The World Food Programme () reported that up to 19 million Sudanese (41% of the population) were struggling to find one meal per day, up from 15 million last year.

It is likely that the violence in Sudan will have large impacts on regional food insecurity, with  having fled to neighboring countries in recent weeks.

Before the conflict, food insecurity was projected to worsen in Sudan, with most of the population in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency)  with neighboring countries.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, trade-related policies imposed by countries have surged.